The year 2024 is a major election year in the United States, during which many noteworthy events will occur. We see a grand election drama surrounding Trump and Harris, continuously providing hot topics for the crypto market, while the election also highlights the growing influence of prediction markets. In fact, data from prediction markets is being adopted, with reports indicating that Bloomberg announced the introduction of prediction market data last year, marking the increasing importance of prediction markets in analyzing political trends and election odds, and also indicating that traditional financial institutions are gradually deepening their adoption of Web3 data.
For prediction markets, their TVL began to rise against the trend last year and reached new highs. In the post-election era, how to maintain this growth momentum and further expand its influence by integrating AI technology has become a focal point of industry attention. Against this backdrop, the first AI+Web3 prediction market project Aegis, built on Gnosis AI, and the AI infrastructure behind it, Gnosis AI, are generating widespread discussion.
In the post-election era, prediction markets remain a new hotspot.
According to a report by Grand View Research, the global sports betting market (including crypto prediction markets and cryptocurrency betting) was valued at $83.65 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10.3% to reach $182.12 billion by 2030. As a form of derivative market, prediction markets allow participants to bet or speculate on the outcomes of various future events. Their application ranges from weather forecasting, entertainment awards results, to the release dates of technological innovations, and even includes some more niche areas. Essentially, prediction markets provide convenient tools for risk management, decision-making, and future trend insights.
Unlike traditional futures markets, crypto prediction markets not only focus on asset price fluctuations but can also predict event outcomes. For example, users can trade a contract related to a specific event: "If Bitcoin's market cap exceeds $1 trillion by the end of the year, this contract pays $1," or "If a certain country launches a CBDC, this contract pays $1." When market participants trade these contracts, prices reflect the probability of the event occurring based on supply and demand. For instance, if a contract is priced at $0.65, it means the market believes there is a 65% chance of the event occurring. This mechanism is the most common trading model in current prediction markets.
Prediction markets have a history of development in the crypto field for several years. As early as 2014, Augur, founded by Joey Krug and Jack Peterson, became the first prediction market on Ethereum, with its token $REP used for staking and reporting event outcomes. Similarly, Gnosis, founded by Martin Köppelmann and Stefan George, is based on Ethereum and employs a unique Dutch auction mechanism to determine event outcomes. In 2021, SX Network emerged as a decentralized prediction market platform that attracted attention, allowing users to predict sports events and crypto outcomes with lower gas fees, and its flexible design attracted many users.
Last year, funding for prediction markets showed a rapid growth trend. On September 17, Fractal Network announced the completion of a $4 million seed round led by Dragonfly Capital. In June of last year, SynFutures completed two rounds of financing totaling $50 million, with investors including Blockchain Capital and Balaji Srinivasan. Fractal Network's trading volume in 2024 has exceeded $300 million, with active users surpassing 50,000. As the crypto ecosystem continues to develop, the prediction market sector shows immense potential and offers users more possibilities.
Polymarket's daily trading volume data over the past three months.
With the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election, prediction markets will lose an important traffic hotspot. Several venture capital firms have shared their insights on the development of prediction markets in the post-election era: Sequoia Capital emphasized that prediction markets need more long-term event targets in the future, such as global economic indicators or ongoing sports leagues, to maintain continuous user engagement rather than relying on short-term single events. Founder Alex pointed out that user retention is key, and platforms need to design mechanisms around cyclical events to attract users to participate multiple times. Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) drew on entertainment industry models to explore how to enhance user returns by increasing event reward multipliers, thereby improving market attractiveness. Paradigm data shows that prediction markets have significant growth potential in non-political events such as climate change and technological breakthroughs. Partners at Framework Ventures predict that prediction markets could achieve 50 to 100 times growth in the future, gradually evolving into mainstream decentralized trading platforms.
Aegis: Reshaping Prediction Markets through AI Agents
In fact, the core of prediction markets lies in predicting potential events through market insights. Initially, predictions relied on human judgment of the market, but with the introduction of AI, prediction markets are being redefined.
The advantage of AI is that it can enhance the transparency and efficiency of prediction markets by analyzing vast amounts of data, identifying market trends, and dynamically optimizing event selection. Two important directions of artificial intelligence are the technology of data learning models and the use of more complex structures to process data. In market predictions, these technologies can analyze historical data, identify trends and patterns, and provide evidence-based predictions for the future. Based on this, AI can handle large amounts of data, whether structured or unstructured information (such as text and images), extracting key insights from it. As a result, market predictions are not only more accurate but can also view complex market dynamics from a broader perspective, helping users better understand potential future changes.
Gnosis AI, as an important department of Gnosis Labs in the intersection of AI and Web3, covers areas such as prediction, risk management, and decision support, and is regarded as a core tool for "truth oracles." Leveraging Gnosis AI's leading advanced artificial intelligence technology solutions, Aegis has taken a leading position in the prediction market field, not only continuing Gnosis AI's technological advantages but also fully applying its capabilities in practical scenarios.
As the first innovative market prediction AI agent supported by Gnosis AI, Aegis combines blockchain transparency with artificial intelligence analysis capabilities, providing users with an unprecedented prediction experience. As the world's first AI agent developed based on the Gnosis framework, Aegis integrates multiple mainstream prediction market platforms (including Polymarket) and a wide range of internet data resources, covering diverse prediction scenarios from cryptocurrency to politics and economics. Through Aegis, users can not only understand market trends but also enhance their prediction accuracy through intelligent analysis, fully participate in prediction market trading, and enjoy a more intelligent and efficient prediction experience.
Aegis and Gnosis AI's Collaborative Innovation
As an important technological cornerstone of Gnosis Labs in the intersection of AI and Web3, Gnosis AI demonstrates exceptional capabilities, covering multiple aspects such as data collection and analysis, high-precision prediction support, user behavior modeling, and market efficiency optimization. Within this framework, Aegis stands out as the world's first market prediction AI agent developed based on the Gnosis framework, inheriting Gnosis AI's technological advantages and applying them comprehensively in practical scenarios, providing users with a smarter and more efficient prediction experience.
Based on Gnosis AI's technological solutions, Aegis can integrate vast amounts of data from multiple sources, including historical records, real-time market dynamics, and social media, to provide comprehensive and reliable information support for predictions. Through machine learning and deep learning technologies, along with Gnosis AI's data cleaning, analysis, and pattern recognition, Aegis can deeply explore potential trends and causal relationships. This powerful data processing capability provides core support for Aegis, enabling it to integrate mainstream prediction platforms like Polymarket and extensive internet data resources, thus covering prediction needs across various fields from cryptocurrency to politics and economics. Through Aegis, users can not only gain insights into market trends but also significantly improve prediction accuracy through intelligent analysis, participating more comprehensively in prediction market trading.
In terms of prediction accuracy, by employing advanced probabilistic modeling techniques (such as Bayesian inference and time series analysis), Aegis can generate precise event predictions for users and can adjust models in real-time based on market dynamics, ensuring the accuracy and timeliness of prediction results. According to data from Gnosis AI, different agents adopt different strategies, with varying performances, and the accuracy of the optimal strategy is about 65%.
Moreover, Gnosis AI's deep understanding of user behavior also brings more possibilities to Aegis. By analyzing users' operational habits and preferences, Aegis can provide personalized prediction suggestions, such as identifying potential profit opportunities or recommending risk avoidance strategies. Currently, Aegis is further optimizing this capability to improve market liquidity and reduce information asymmetry, enabling Aegis to provide users with a more transparent and trustworthy trading environment, enhancing the user prediction experience, and increasing the platform's attractiveness and stickiness.
In terms of security, Gnosis AI has built a robust blockchain technology infrastructure to ensure the transparency and authenticity of prediction results and transaction records. Aegis also retains this characteristic, allowing users to verify the operation process of AI models through on-chain smart contracts, thereby fostering trust in the platform's operations. Additionally, Gnosis AI's decentralized model deployment approach provides solid technical support for Aegis, avoiding the single point of failure risks of traditional centralized systems, and allowing users to participate in model optimization and governance through DAO mechanisms, achieving a deep integration of technological development and community building. Besides being trustworthy, Aegis also features privacy characteristics; by adopting an improved zero-knowledge proof scheme, Aegis can ensure the privacy and security of user data in prediction analysis, creating a safer prediction environment for users.
Currently, Aegis is also integrated with Gnosis AI's social agent (the trading agent's "public relations representative"), analyzing its betting behavior while publishing analytical content on social platforms (such as X and Farcaster), and acting as the trading agent's "external memory," recording its past behaviors and decision-making logic. Aegis's X is also continuously conducting predictive analysis on certain events to provide advice to relevant stakeholders and investors.
Economic System
Aegis has currently issued the governance token $Ageis, which is primarily used for DAO governance. This asset is also a necessary asset for users to utilize Aegis's prediction tools, and holding it will grant a series of prediction rights.
It is reported that Aegis aims to open prediction facilities to everyone, and the ecological token will be issued in a first-come, first-served manner during the Pump.fun Fair Launch.
In Conclusion
Web3 and AI technologies are redefining prediction markets, enabling anyone to create, understand, and trade almost any event in a transparent and open environment. This flexibility is particularly attractive to the younger generation of users. The growth data of prediction markets over the past six months indicates that there is still immense development potential ahead. The integration of AI technology in Aegis will not only bring a more intelligent information experience to the entire prediction market sector, unlocking more possibilities, but as a prediction market platform based on Gnosis AI, Aegis injects new development momentum into prediction markets by deeply integrating AI and Web3 technologies. This innovative model will also enhance market efficiency and user experience, paving the way for a broader future for the entire sector.